人工神经网络方法在拟建小区域环境质量评价中的应用

人工神经网络的评价方法用于小区域环境质量评价中,根据本地区特点因地制宜地选择环境质量参数,代入模型中进行环境质量评价及预测,对用于环境质量评价的BP人工神经网络模型进行了改进,即对网络模型的训练样本进行了扩充,从而提高了模型的抗干扰能力和准确性.将改进了的BP人工神经网络模型应用于四川省资阳市沱江二桥拟建项目小区域的大气、地表水环境质量评价中, 对该市小区域大气、地表水环境质量状况进行评价,评价结果表明,BP人工神经网络模型用于环境质量评价是可行的,且评价结论客观,评价模型普遍适用.     

基于制度与技术情境的企业绿色管理战略研究

企业绿色管理已有研究将制度和技术在两个不同的领域进行分析,忽视了绿色管理是对制度和技术压力的反应,两种压力同时并存甚至相互影响.技术创新的"正外部性"和环境问题的"负外部性"要求在分析企业绿色管理行为时,整合制度和环境技术创新以及二者的相互关系.已有文献普遍强调作为强制性制度的环境规制对技术创新的驱动效果,而较少关注制度压力与技术创新的交互作用.通过对企业面临的制度压力和技术压力相互关系的分析,本文构建了基于制度与技术情境的企业绿色管理战略选择模型.企业绿色管理战略是制度压力和环境技术等因素相互作用的结果,对制度压力的反应有助于技术效率的提高,而企业所处的制度情境也影响到其对技术压力的响应方式.针对我国目前的环境监管现状,本文为制定有助于清洁技术采纳和扩散的环境政策提出相应建议.     

Proximity economics and environment: assessment and prospects

The use of the theoretical tools provided by proximity economics to address environmental questions, and the emergence of analyses revitalising the role of the spatial dimension in environmental problems, date from the late 1990s. This paper first aims to provide a review of the research conducted in this field and second to suggest some future research directions concerning the respective roles of geographical proximity and organised proximity in the production and management of environmental problems. First, it deals with the topic of ‘geographical proximity and land-use conflicts’, a topic that is currently the most researched in this field. This is followed by a discussion of the role of organised proximity in the regulation of environmental problems. The paper then explores the relation between the uncertainty associated with environmental issues and relations of organised proximity. Next it outlines a few possible research directions, focusing more particularly on the roles of geographical proximity as a mode of regulation of environmental problems, and on the possible role of organised proximity in their production. The concluding section draws an overview of the departures and extensions that have resulted from taking into account environmental issues in the paradigm of proximity economics.     

城市污水处理厂环境影响评价中的问题探讨

针对城市污水处理厂项目的特点，分析探讨了此类项目环境影响评价中应注意的几个问题。     

摩托车头盔与摩托车交通事故的相关研究

我国近年来的摩托车死亡事故占交通事故死亡总数的25％-28％。在我国摩托车使用比较普及的地区，摩托车交通事故数占到该地区交通事故总数的70％-80％，伤亡比例占到总数的50％以上，甚至更高。通过对摩托车交通事故伤亡人员的具体受伤部位分析，发现头部受伤致死的比例非常高，占到该类事故死亡总数75％以上，远远高于其他部位受伤致死率。摩托车驾乘人员头部受伤致死的主要原因是摩托车驾驶乘人员头盔佩戴率低和佩戴的头盔质量差，对头部未能起到应有的保护作用。造成这一局面既有摩托车乘员头盔标准等技术层面存在的问题，又有行业监管等政策层面存在的问题，最后，文章从摩托车头盔标准方面提出了几点修订建议，为规范头盔行业进行基础性的准备。     

How Green is Too Green? Public Opinion of What Constitutes Undesirable Algae Levels in Streams1

Abstract: A public opinion survey was carried out in Montana to ascertain if the public identifies a level of benthic (bottom‐attached) river and stream algae that is undesirable for recreation. The survey had two parts; an On‐River survey and a By‐Mail survey. The On‐River survey was conducted via 44 trips randomly scheduled throughout the state during which recreators were interviewed in‐person at the stream. Selection of stream segments and survey dates/times was based on known, statewide recreational use patterns. By‐Mail survey forms were sent to 2,000 individuals randomly selected from Montana’s Centralized Voter File (CVF) available from the Montana Secretary of State. The CVF was current through 2004 and represented over 85% of the state’s eligible voting population. In both surveys, eight randomly ordered photographs depicting varying levels of stream benthic algae were presented, and participants were asked if the algae level shown was desirable or undesirable for recreation. Survey form design, selection of photographs, and pretesting followed acceptable protocols that limited unintentional bias through survey execution. There were 433 returned forms (389 complete) for the By‐Mail survey, while the On‐River survey documented 563 interviews. In both surveys, as benthic algal chlorophyll a (Chl a) levels increased, desirability for recreation decreased. (Other measures of benthic algae biomass are presented as well.) For the public majority, mean benthic Chl a levels ≥200 mg/m² were determined to be undesirable for recreation, whereas mean levels ≤150 mg Chl a/m² were found to be desirable. Error rates were within the survey’s statistical design criteria (≤5%). The largest potential error source was nonresponse in the By‐Mail survey; however, the population represented by nonrespondents would have to exhibit profoundly different perceptions of river and stream algae to meaningfully alter the results. Results support earlier work in the literature suggesting 150 mg Chl a/m² represents a benthic algae nuisance threshold.     

人工神经网络在化学和环境科学中应用的若干问题

讨论了人工神经网络中最常用的多层前馈网络 ( BP网络 )及误差反向传播算法应用于化学和环境科学时要考虑的几个问题 :网络的输入与数据的归一化 ;隐含层数、隐含层节数和学习速率 ;训练集与监控集 ;网络误差 ;初始权重     

Conversion of a Missouri River Dam and Reservoir to a Sustainable System: Sediment Management1

Abstract: A present and future challenge for water resources engineers is to extend the useful life of our dams and reservoirs. Ongoing reservoir sedimentation in impoundments must be addressed; sedimentation in many reservoirs already limits project benefits and effective project life. Sustainability requires that incoming sediment be moved downstream past the impounding dam. We use Lewis and Clark Lake, the most downstream of the six Missouri River main stem reservoirs, to demonstrate how a reservoir in advanced stages of its project life could be converted to a sustainable system with local benefits exceeding costs by a factor of 1.5. Full consideration of benefits would further enhance project justification. The proposed strategy involves four phases that will take about 50 years to complete. Cost estimates for this potential project range from the quantitative to the plausible, but it is clear that the results justify a full engineering, environmental, and economic study of this model project. If implemented, the project will create scientific knowledge and develop technologies useful for achieving sustainability at many other reservoirs in the Mississippi River basin and beyond.     

Assessing the long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials—a combined evaluation of past and future trends

This paper develops a method for identifying and assessing long-term supply risks for mineral raw materials. The method is based on a combined evaluation of past and future supply and demand trends. By analysing raw material boom and bust cycles over the past 50 years, we have quantified indicators and defined benchmarks for identifying critical market situations. By applying the method, risks for supply shortage may be identified at an early stage. In addition, a numerical evaluation model has been developed for better comparison between various mineral raw materials. Compared to other assessment methods this method uses specific benchmarks for each raw material to better assess supply risks. The method is embedded within a systematic and comprehensive analytical approach.     

我国经济发展的生态效率及其改进策略

本文考察了我国历年生态效率状况，应用两种预测方法探讨了至2020年我国经济发展的生态效率预期目标，并从宏观角度提出了系统性的改进策略。研究表明，1997～2005年，我国水资源生产率、工业用水资源生产率、能源生产率、COD排放生产率、SO2排放生产率的年平均增长率分别为8．77％、7．19％、2．56％、11．94％、7．35％。根据“十一五”规划，至2010年，我国拟采用的水资源生产率倍数、工业用水资源生产率倍数、能源生产率倍数、COD排放生产率倍数、SO2排放生产率倍数分别为1．924、2．081、1．223、2．570、1．969，与根据我国历年变化趋势所预测的相应值基本持平，有的甚至还相对低一些；按“十一五”规划期生态效率增长趋势所推测的2020年上述值分别为3．006、4．247、1．912、6．540、5．009，根据我国历年变化趋势所预测的相应值分别为5．37、4．01、1．66、9．54、4．13。我国生态效率改进的基本策略是：技术进步、结构调整、制度创新和强化管理等。